Israel is executing a major strategic pivot on its northern border, shifting from a focus on war with a non-state actor, Hezbollah, to peace talks with sovereign nations, Syria and Lebanon. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu outlined this shift on Sunday, arguing that the former was a necessary precondition for the latter.
This pivot is most apparent with Syria. The end of the Assad regime has allowed Israel to engage directly with the Syrian state, bypassing the proxy conflicts of the past. Negotiations are reportedly progressing, with a Syrian official stating that the two countries hope to finalize military and security agreements by the end of 2025.
The pivot in Lebanon involves strengthening the state at Hezbollah’s expense. Israel continues to degrade Hezbollah’s military capabilities through airstrikes, even after a ceasefire. This is intended to create space for the Lebanese army, now under government orders to do so, to disarm the militia and assert national sovereignty.
“The possibility of peace with our northern neighbours… was not even imagined before our recent operations and actions,” Netanyahu said, explaining the logic behind this strategic shift. He confirmed that the Syrian talks are moving forward, but cautioned that the process is complex and will take time.
This new strategy has led to significant developments. The new Syrian president is negotiating the terms of an Israeli withdrawal in exchange for security guarantees, and its military has reportedly withdrawn heavy weapons from the border. The Lebanese government, for its part, has set a three-month timeline to begin disarming Hezbollah in the south, a critical step in this strategic pivot.